1460b and will be detailed in pending No. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). For all readers, in general, if you have any questions or otherwise would like to communicate, please e-mail johnwilliams@shadowstats.com or call (707) 763-5786. Against its Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), ShadowStats March 2023 Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits [83% of the old pre-May 2020 M1]) moved higher to 120.5%, from a revised 119.8% (previously 119.3%) in February, still shy of its historic peak of 123.2% in August 2022.
Government will not lift welfare payments despite recommendation - as Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. March 2023 activity versus the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Trough for the newly redefined (post-May 2020) headline M1 (now including Savings Deposits, at about 92% of M2) was up by a headline 375.8%, albeit on a nonsensical, not comparable and inconsistent basis, down from 385.4% in February. A Review-Preview of 2020 into 2024, it will incorporate all the latest economic details. Best Wishes -- John Williams. -- Extended Fed coverage will follows in the later SYSTEMIC RISK SECTION -- FEDERAL RESERVE, with an updated story following the pending May 3rd FOMC coverage, as well as a comprehensive review of Federal Reserve Monetary Policies and Federal Government Fiscal Policies in pending Commentary No. -- Headline Fourth-Quarter 2022 GDP inflation (Implicit Price Deflator [IPD}) came in at a revised third estimate of an annualized pace of 3.92% (previously 3.93% and 3.51%), against an unrevised 4.36% in 3q2022, and up by an unrevised year-to-year 6.41% (initially 6.30%), versus an unrevised 7.15% in Third-Quarter 2022, which remained at a 42-year high, outside of the recent inflation spike. Per the NAR Press Release, Existing-home sales retreated 2.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. Dan Heng builds: Sharpen that spear. 1461. (5) April 25th (Census Bureau). ET, May 23, 2023. Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump
Is ShadowStats legit? : AskReddit Search Text. Others: Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. The Fed will release the headline April 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base data at 1:00 p.m. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. CPI-adjusted, Real Retail Sales declined by 1.04% (-1.04%) month-to-month in March 2023, down by 1.95% (-1.95%) year-to-year, with First-Quarter 2023 Real Retail Sales declining 0.30% (-0.30%) year-to-year, down for the fourth time in the last five quarters, otherwise gyrating with extreme volatility in recent monthly automobile sales. -- A little closer to real-world numbers, initial year-to-year headline March 2023 PPI Construction Inflation eased to 15.6%, from a minimally revised 16.1% (previously 16.2%) in February 2023. That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Data source: Quarterly Informal Economy Survey (QIES) by World Economics, London. 1461] -- The 2020 Economic Collapse Remains Far from full Recovery. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). FOMC action looms this week, amidst signs of a tanking Economy and a serious Inflation problem. ET). For a number of years I conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics (the vast majority thought it was pretty bad), and my results led to front page stories in 1989 in the New York Times and Investors Daily (now Investors Business Daily), considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the government's statistical agencies. Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006
The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook Headline 1q2023 GDP annualized Real GDP growth of 1.06% slowed from an unrevised 2.57% in 4q2022, while annualized quarterly inflation picked from 3.92% to 4.01%. Consumer Liquidity, Depression, Money Supply. Over the decades, well in excess of 1,000 presentations have been given on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clientslarge and smallincluding talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions There Is No V-Shaped Recovery That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. Annual Boom of 5.7% in October Real Retail Sales Was Not Credible; Related Retail Employment and Consumer Goods Production Continued in Annual Decline, Despite the Gain in Freight Activity
Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. the Plunge Protection Team), or as otherwise being gamed by the Federal Reserve. March 2023 Housing Starts dropped year-to-year by a meaningful 17.2% (-17.2%) +/- 9.1%, with a 90% confidence interval, versus a revised 19.4% (-19.4%) [previously 18.4% (-18.4%)] in February. -- The Feds Balance Sheet Reduction formally began in June 2022 and should have begun to relieve some Money Supply pressures on Inflation at that time, in theory. Noted the by the U of M, Despite the increasingly negative news on business conditions heard by consumers, their short and long-run economic outlook improved modestly balanced by worsening assessments of personal finances due to higher expenses, reflecting the ongoing pain stemming from continued high prices. [Go to http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu for the full details.]. Under current policy and based on this reports assumptions, it is projected to reach 701 percent by 2096.
Astounding Hyperinflation Call From John Williams, Shadowstats Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. [See the earlier headline Payroll discussions and later FOMC comments.] The best Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build is all about . Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. Inflation remains elevated. Here is how the March 2023 Money Supply numbers shaped up. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR).
Deconstructing ShadowStats. Why is it so Loved by its Followers but As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation.
Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart - Shadowstats.com Broadly, the aggregate Monetary Base had been in decline since hitting a peak in January 2021, but it has turned higher in the last several months.
Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page - ShadowStats Reserves jumped by a dominant 7.1% in the month, which would speak to new money creation, while the Currency in Circulation component gained by 0.6% month-to-month, to a new historic high. -- In contrast, the ShadowStats Inflation-Corrected GDP Estimate (updated and graphed in full detail on the ALTERNATE DATA Tab) is corrected for the understatement of the headline inflation used in deflating Nominal GDP to Real GDP. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. At the same time, the Pandemic-distorted and disrupted year-to-year gain for February 2023 Basic M1 eased to 4.8% from and unrevised 6.2% in February 2023. This is because he states that these numbers have been manipulated over the past 25 years for nefarious political reasons. Shadow TUAS air vehicle The air vehicle system can be transported by two military wheeled vehicles and can be operated round-the-clock from unprepared sites by the 22-soldier crew. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Accordingly, ongoing massive Fiscal and Monetary Stimuli will be needed, and likely will expand into 2024/2025, irrespective of the FOMCs pronounced tightening. As demonstrated in recent decades, FOMC stimulus likely will remain in play, as targeted by the FOMC, primarily, in order to prevent a collapse in the Banking System, or to magnify liquidity in the Banking System, which owns and controls the Federal Reserve, not to stimulate the Broad Economy, per se. The U.S. Dollar Is at Its Lowest Level Against the Swiss Franc Since January 2015, Down by 10.0% (-10.0%) Year-to-Year A Weak Dollar Is Highly Inflationary for the United States and Bullish for Gold
ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13.5% - KITCO He received an A.B. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook.
ShadowStats' John Williams: Why inflation now is really 13. - YouTube Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 1461. 1461. Headline March 2023 Producer Price Index (PPI) annual inflation dropped sharply from 4.9% in February 2023 to 2.8% in March 2023, due to the relative easing against the extreme oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago Russian invasion of Ukraine.